Forexology

UK Retail Sales – 5:30 PM SGT – 25th Mar 2010

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There are 2 news events today worth watching but i have more to contribute to the UK Retail Sales news event at 5:30 pm SGT than the 8:30 Pm US Unemployment Claims event.

UK and Eur as you already know are in a bit of hot soup lately. Last week alone, they have dropped close to 3% of their original value combined and further losses this week can only compound these figures.

As such, the market is in an heavily oversold state and after UK’s annual budget release yesterday, Chancellor Darling didn’t do much to hype up the cable(Gbp/Usd has already lost 80 pips since the announcement) and we can expect the sterling to be in doldrums and perhaps see even more downsside in the upcoming months. There are rumours even that the UK and the US would favour their currencies to be much weaker than they already are to keep inflation low and increase exports and production. Makes sense to me :)

Ok, back to the news event, as we are already in a very saggy oversold state, we will only be looking for a negative news to further short the sterling.

We will not be looking for a buy in this market condition.

Therefore, if the news trigger comes -1.4% and worse, i will suggest you to sell the Gbp/Usd and perhaps even the Gbp/Chf. Do not sell Gbp/Jpy as Jpy is really weak at this point in time.

If we get the number anything more than -1.4%, i.e. -1.3% and better, we will not be taking any trades.

Last Updated ( Thursday, 25 March 2010 06:49 )  
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